Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.700287 23.582794 25.615096 27.982792 30.678931 33.669555 37.260126
2025-11-09 18.689968 21.261669 24.232115 27.958809 32.570207 38.172906 45.629227
2025-11-16 16.544949 19.469857 23.025125 27.752704 34.015256 42.244791 54.276501
2025-11-23 14.957728 18.071474 22.011750 27.505353 35.213288 46.065438 63.375892
2025-11-30 13.732224 16.948228 21.154457 27.257093 36.256981 49.738775 73.087145
2025-12-07 12.796027 16.083119 20.506659 27.154236 37.410763 53.694678 84.267456
2025-12-14 11.969017 15.274419 19.830834 26.888123 38.218238 57.180872 95.616300
2025-12-21 11.621635 15.085664 19.992011 27.859808 41.096060 64.715654 117.505646
2025-12-28 11.006940 14.461353 19.449951 27.654431 41.946250 68.736605 133.525895
2026-01-04 10.511190 13.968397 19.053977 27.624300 43.073100 73.508056 153.502731
2026-01-11 10.151530 13.646832 18.885870 27.939677 44.858225 80.030523 181.655156
2026-01-18 9.723139 13.191562 18.469147 27.777822 45.698317 84.695861 207.310636
2026-01-25 9.293136 12.715797 17.997182 27.493339 46.302493 89.108176 235.901711
2026-02-01 8.944200 12.345301 17.669571 27.436214 47.371962 94.998390 275.332397
2026-02-08 8.594680 11.953533 17.278705 27.222181 48.077678 100.192001 317.577430
2026-02-15 8.268115 11.579864 16.891952 26.976249 48.675803 105.305137 366.019407
2026-02-22 7.967706 11.232002 16.525500 26.732695 49.242437 110.541513 423.143219
2026-03-01 7.713854 10.946147 16.246373 26.631820 50.127430 117.083066 500.434252
2026-03-08 7.452525 10.635186 15.904120 26.372694 50.593356 122.487600 582.260063
2026-03-15 7.395143 10.656198 16.144721 27.317320 54.216543 140.252674 827.071483
2026-03-22 7.170480 10.386912 15.849160 27.117610 54.858442 147.496646 999.377257
2026-03-29 6.984151 10.173780 15.642738 27.088294 55.957697 157.126009 1262.184322
2026-04-05 6.854791 10.051225 15.594243 27.394866 58.045561 172.091019 1754.183540